Are Mergers Beneficial to Consumers? Evidence from the Market for Bank Deposits

The general conclusion of the empirical literature is that in-market consolidation generates adverse price changes, harming consumers. Previous studies, however, look only at the short-run pricing impact of consolidation, ignoring all effects that take longer to materialize. Using a database that includes detailed information on the deposit rates of individual banks in local markets for different categories of depositors, we investigate the long-run price effects of M&As for the first time. We find strong evidence that, although consolidation does generate adverse price changes, these are temporary. In the long run efficiency gains dominate over the market power effect, leading to more favorable prices for consumers.mergers, efficiency, market power, bank mergers

Style, Fees and Performance of Italian Equity Funds

Using a clustering procedure,we classify Italian funds ex-post on the basis of the composition of their portfolios and find that the optimal number of clusters is equal to 4. The four groups which result from the statistical classification closely match the 4-level aggregation of the 20 ex-ante categories used by the Italian mutual funds association. We then estimate the risk-adjusted performance of Italian equity funds, using both net and gross returns and employing both one-factor CAPM benchmarks and multi-factor benchmarks. In addition to the standard Jensen's a, we measure risk-adjusted performance using the Positive Period Weighting measure (PPW), which is not influenced by managers' market-timing strategy.Using net returns (calculated after management fees and taxes but before load fees) the Italian equity funds' performance is not significantly different from zero. However, when the funds'performance is evaluated on the basis of gross returns (i.e.returns computed adding back management fees paid each year by the funds), the performance of the Italian equity funds is always positive. In particular, when both a 2-index benchmark that takes account of the funds' investments in government bonds and a 5-factor APT benchmark are considered, performance is positive and significant using both Jensen's a and the PPW. This result supports Grossman and Stiglitz's (1980) view of market efficiency, suggesting that informed investors (investment funds) are compensated for their information gathering.mutual funds; performance measures; investment style; management fees; market timing

Is there an Equity Premium Puzzle in Italy? A Look at Asset Returns, Consumption and Financial Structure Data over the Last Century

This paper reconstructs the series of the real returns on Italian equities, bank and PO deposits and long-term government bonds from 1860 to today. In the long-run the return on shares was much higher than that on government securities and also that on bank and PO deposits. However, this summary assessment is considerably influenced by the exceptional falls in the real value of government securities and bank deposits caused by the hyperinflation that occurred in conjunction with the two world wars. Within the period, there were alternate phases, paralleling the economic cycle and the main institutional changes, in which the return on shares was higher than those on the other two instruments and vice versa. Overall, the Italian equity market provided long-run returns to investors comparable to those of other major countries, although a large fraction of the risk premium for the whole period can be accounted for by the performance following of the hyperinflation episodes of the wars. However, the risk-return trade-off, owing to much larger volatility, compared unfavourably with other markets. Moreover, the Italian equity market in the last 30 years (up to 1994), when equity prices barely kept up with inflation, looks very different. The econometric analysis suggests the presence of an equity premium puzzle in Italy during the estimation period, 1892-1993. In contrast, for government securities the observed returns were approximately in line with the theoretical values. The estimates show that both the returns on government securities and those on shares include an inflation risk premium. For government securities, this was estimated at around 0.8 percentage points. The inflation risk premium was smaller for shares.intertemporal consumer choice, asset prices, equity premium, Italian financial markets history

Monetary and macroprudential policies

We use a dynamic general equilibrium model featuring a banking sector to assess the interaction between macroprudential policy and monetary policy. We find that in "normal" times (when the economic cycle is driven by supply shocks) macroprudential policy generates only modest benefits for macroeconomic stability over a "monetary-policy-only" world. And lack of cooperation between the macroprudential authority and the central bank may even result in conflicting policies, hence suboptimal results. The benefits of introducing macroprudential policy tend to be sizeable when financial or housing market shocks, which affect the supply of loans, are important drivers of economic dynamics. In these cases a cooperative central bank will "lend a hand" to the macroprudential authority, working for broader objectives than just price stability in order to improve overall economic stability.macroprudential policy, monetary policy, capital requirements

The Stability of the Relation between the Stock Market and Macroeconomic Forces

This paper identifies the macroeconomic factors that influence Italian equity returns and tests the stability of their relation with securities returns. In the sixteen-year period that has been analyzed the relation between stock returns and the macroeconomic factors is found to be highly unstable: not only are the betas of individual securities virtually uncorrelated over time, but a high percentage of the shares experience a reversal of the sign of the estimated loadings. This result is not confined to single periods or to a small group of shares, but holds in different sub-periods and for securities in all risk classes. These findings suggest that empirical analysis of asset pricing should carefully investigate the specification of the return generating process and the stability of the risk measures.arbitrage pricing theory, return generating process, stock market factors, factor loadings

Consolidation and efficiency in the financial sector: a review of the international evidence

In response to fundamental changes in regulation and technology, the financial industry around the world is undergoing an unprecedented wave of consolidation. A growing body of empirical literature has attempted to measure the efficiency gains from M&As; however there is little sense of how the results might depend on the country, industry and time period analysed. In this paper we review critically works that cover the main sectors of the financial industry (commercial and investment banks, insurance and asset management companies) in the major industrialized countries over the last twenty years, searching for common patterns that transcend national and sectoral peculiarities. We find that consolidation in the financial sector is beneficial up to a relatively small size in order to reap economies of scale, but there is little evidence that mergers yield economies of scope or gains in managerial efficiency.mergers, efficiency, bank mergers

Will a Common European Monetary Policy Have Asymmetric Effects?

We survey the existing work on the cross-country differences in the transmission of European monetary policy. We find that prior work, focusing on macroeconomic data, does not clearly answer the question posed in the title and offer some explanations for the ambiguity. Aside from the inappropriate design of the prior empirical exercises, we point to the need to use microeconomic data to disentangle the potentially confounding effects of differences in the behavior of agents in different countries and the composition of agents across countries. We review the leading theories of monetary non-neutrality to find the structural features of the economy that in principle could alter the transmission mechanism. We provide some evidence that these structural features do differ markedly among the major European economies. We then explore the potential importance of these structural factors drawing on firm-level data from one country, Italy, and we show how the business cycle has differentially affected firms in Italy over the last decade. It appears that the 1992 monetary tightening and 1993 recession were not uniformly felt by Italian firms, but differed along the lines suggested by several of the theories. Several of the dimensions which appear to be important in the Italian experience are dimensions which vary noticeably across European countries, suggesting that further work on firm-level comparisons in other European countries may be valuable.monetary policy transmission asymmetries, firm level data

Pro-cyclicality of capital regulation: is it a problem? How to fix it?

We use a macroeconomic euro area model with a bank sector to study the pro-cyclical effect of the capital regulation, focusing on the extra pro-cyclicality induced by Basel II over Basel I. Our results suggest that this incremental effect is modest. We also find that regulators could offset the extra pro-cyclicality by a countercyclical capital-requirements policy. Our results also suggest that banks may have incentives to accumulate countercyclical capital buffers, making this policy less relevant, but this finding is depends on the type of economic shock posited. We also survey different policy options for dealing with procyclicality and discuss the pros and cons of the measures available.Basel accord, pro-cyclicality

Credit demand and supply in Italy during the financial crisis

The paper analyzes developments in bank lending in Italy during the financial crisis, assessing the relative contribution of demand and supply factors to lending deceleration. We find that the slowdown in lending was mainly due to a reduction in demand. For households, this can be attributed to the weakness of the real estate market and to the fall in consumption; for firms, a diminution in financing needs, due in turn to the sharp contraction of investment. Credit market indicators and empirical studies suggest that lending growth may also have been curbed by tensions in credit supply. These tensions mainly reflected the increase in borrower risk, as well as the impact of the crisis – especially in its first phase – on banks’ capital, liquidity, and ability to access external funding. Econometric analyses corroborate these indications, suggesting that the overall impact of banks’ conditions on the lending slowdown was modest. Over the next few months, supply tensions could persist, but the risk of a limitation of credit will be moderated by the economic recovery and the consequent reduction in borrower default risk. There will also be support from public interventions, which have provided financial support to firms, improving their creditworthiness, and strengthened banks’ capital and liquidity position.credit demand and supply, financial crisis, Italian economy.

Why Do Banks Merge?

The banking industry is consolidating at an accelerating pace, yet no conclusive results have emerged on the benefits of mergers and acquisitions. We analyze the Italian market, which is similar to other main European countries. By considering both acquisitions (i.e. the purchase of the majority of voting shares) and mergers we evidence the motives and results of each type of deal. Mergers seek to improve income from services, but the increase is offset by higher staff costs; return on equity improves because of a decrease in capital. Acquisitions aim to restructure the loan portfolio of the acquired bank; improved lending policies result in higher profits.banks, mergers and acquisitions, performance